Nigeria: A Cautious Basis For Hope

by David Kilgour

The following article was published in the July-August 1999 issue of Diplomat & International Canada

Many thousands of Nigerians, the heads of state from a host of African countries, representatives of many other governments and international organizations, and at least 500 journalists gathered on May 29 in Abuja’s largest square to witness Nigeria’s return to democratic, civilian government.

The mood was cheerful, almost festive, throughout the three-hour event. The crowds in the square surged forward to see and loudly applauded the visiting Nelson Mandela and Nigeria’s outgoing Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar -- both of whom are seen by Nigerians as courageous and conscientious leaders. Although he too was warmly received and applauded, the crowd’s reception for the incoming President, Olusegun Obasanjo, was more subdued, probably because his ability to lead Nigeria at this critical time is yet unproven.

General Abubakar, architect of the transition, looked relieved as he handed power to Obasanjo, the winner of the presidential election. Abubakar was a professional soldier with no known political involvement in his 36 year career. He became Head of State upon the death last year of General Sani Abacha and has since acquired the admiration of both compatriots and Nigeria’s friends abroad for his single-minded determination to hold elections and restore democracy within 11 months of taking office. In his parting remarks at the ceremony General Abubakar once again called upon the military to return to their constitutional role and he warned them that "military governments are out of tune in the world today."

Retired General Obasanjo, although a military Head of State in Nigeria for three years in the late 1970's, is the only other general to have returned the government to a democratically-elected successor. After that handover, he established a farm to demonstrate to his fellow Nigerians the need for the country to maintain the ability to feed itself through the development of agriculture. General Obasanjo also became involved in conflict resolution and built international contacts through such organizations as the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture and, later, the Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group. For alleged complicity in a coup plot against Abacha, General Obasanjo was jailed for three years before being released last year by Abubakar.

In November he decided to run for the Presidency and was successful with strong support in all regions of the country except his own area of southwest Nigeria where many people felt that he was too friendly to the Muslim leaders of northern Nigeria. His time in custody appears to have deepened his Christian faith considerably.

Nigeria is the largest black nation on earth, with an estimated 120 million inhabitants and a projection for 220 million within 20 years. It’s also favoured with enormous natural resources, especially oil and gas, and ought to be one of the world’s more important economies offering prosperous lives for most of its people.

Tragically, it has experienced military government most of the time since independence in 1960. Military government has usually shown itself to be corrupt and incompetent and, at times, deeply repressive. The relatively short periods of civilian government have been little better. Military, political and commercial elites have, over the years, misappropriated billions of dollars of public money for their personal use and grossly mismanaged the economy. Corruption flourished to such a degree that, according to the Berlin-based NGO, Transparency International, Nigeria last year was the second most corrupt nation on earth. In consequence, an estimated 70-80% of Nigerians today live on less than one dollar a day while the wealthiest have multi-million dollar incomes and luxurious lifestyles.

The new President has been active in Transparency International and has wisely made the combatting of corruption a major commitment. He reiterated this in his inaugural speech. His political supporters have majorities in both chambers of the new parliament as well as among the 36 state governors. This should help him pursue his other priorities as well: revival of agriculture, education, national reconciliation, encouragement of foreign investment and debt relief. An unknown quantity, however, is the degree to which General Obasanjo’s political supporters will work together as a coherent team.

The economy will require much attention and international cooperation. The government deficit is now running at about 8% of GDP; inflation is up to double digit figures; interest rates are the highest in a decade at 35%; usable foreign exchange reserves are only about $3 billion. The IMF and other financial institutions will be watching carefully to see how the new government disciplines its spending. Worth noting here is that Adams Oshiomole, leader of the Nation’s largest labour federation, has urged his membership to give the new government time to turn the economy around.

Canada earned much respect from Nigerians for our principled stand against the Abacha regime. Unlike many nations, we suspended diplomatic relations and pushed hard in the Commonwealth for a united tough stand. We were also part of the consensus in the Commonwealth Ministers’ Action Group which recommended to heads of government that Nigeria’s membership in the body be fully restored only when democratic rule was fully restored.

Despite these very large problems, there seems to be a domestic and international consensus that President Obasanjo can succeed in major ways and it is crucial to Nigerians that he take full advantage of this new opportunity. It is also important to Africans generally and to friendly countries, like Canada, that he lives up to the expectations of his compatriots.

David Kilgour, Secretary of State (Latin America and Africa) led the Canadian delegation to the May 29th inauguration in Nigeria.