We need 'coalition of willing' to police Darfur

By SIMON ROSENBLUM
Board Member, World Federalists of Canada

Toronto Star, August 16, 2005

Opinion, A19

Faced with cries for help from Darfuris, echoed by hundreds of humanitarian workers on the ground, we fiddled, prevaricated and watched from afar. We hoped, as was the case 11 years ago (Rwanda), that the problem would resolve itself in as short a time as possible and with a minimum commitment on our part."

These are the damning words of Canadian Senator Romeo Dallaire alluding to the tragedy of Darfur, where more than 2 million people have been driven from their homes and approximately 300,000 have died, mostly from the starvation and disease directly resulting from ethnic cleansing. Dallaire is presently a member of the Prime Minister's special advisory team on Sudan.

Our government, which has, indeed, stepped up to the plate concerning Darfur far more than most, is now telling us that the situation there has significantly changed. The ethnic cleansing is basically over now and new circumstances demand different responses.

The order of the day in this changed environment is for the international community to support the African Union Mission (AMIS) as it beefs up its troop levels from fewer than 3,000 today to 7,700 by September and 12,000 by March next year. The role of these forces will now largely be to stabilize the situation for refugees in the camps and to prepare for their ultimate return to their homes.

Not everyone agrees with this assessment of where matters presently stand in Darfur and how they will evolve in the next year or two. The highly respected International Crisis Group, for example, maintains that, while there is a noticeable decline in large janjaweed attacks and government air strikes, attacks on civilians still continue.

A new World Health Organization study concludes that at least 5,000 or more Darfuris are still dying each month.

More recently, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan informed the Security Council that rebels and militias were still carrying out attacks in Darfur, raping women and creating fear, although violence had declined in the last year.

Annan said that while the number of civilians killed in Darfur has dropped from more than 300 in January to fewer than 100 in June, people remain afraid to venture far from their camps.

Furthermore, the current lull provides the militias with an opportunity to rearm and reposition forces, and serious new fighting remains a distinct possibility.

This is especially ominous given that Khartoum is making no effort to disarm the janjaweed. Consequently, there is an immediate need for AMIS to expand to 12,000 to 15,000 troops now, not in a year's time. Clearly, the African Union needs to take the lead, but it would be a disservice to the people of Darfur to overlook the AU's deficiencies.

Others - NATO most particularly - need to be more involved.

This means a renewed, stronger mandate for an AU-plus mission and, in all likelihood, some form of coalition of the willing because the Security Council will no doubt be paralyzed by obstructionist vetoes.

This will also likely result in friction within the AU, and between the AU and its friends. It would be nice, of course, to avoid such outcomes, but we need to appreciate that the current line of "Africa-only solutions" is highly suspect.

Surely it is totally inappropriate to try to placate Khartoum on this issue. The ICG is on the mark when it argues that "the premise that Khartoum will act in good faith is fatally flawed."

That is really the nub of the matter. What we heard in Ottawa is a game plan very much dependent on the goodwill of the Khartoum government if the refugees are ever to return safely to their homes. So far, Khartoum has done nothing to warrant this confidence.

The International Crisis Group is persuasive in arguing not only that a strong international force is necessary to save lives in the short term, but it is also needed to generate momentum towards a long-term solution.

The bottom line is that effective civilian protection today is pivotal to creating the environment in which the safe return of the refugees becomes realistic. Only with a strong show of force standing up to both the janjaweed and Khartoum will this become more than a ritualistic pipe dream.

One is left with high anxieties. The international community failed Darfur miserably when the ethnic cleansing was at its peak.

It is no doubt true that Canada made an honest effort to get the U.N. to do the right thing. Those who argue that Canada alone could have made a real difference militarily are recasting the issue in a not entirely helpful manner.

The real issue remains what a community of nations - or at least a coalition of the willing - should have done and should do now.

My problem with Canada's position is that it now seems to be taking a path of least resistance and buying into a strategy that is likely to result in merely stabilizing a situation where the criminal objectives of the Sudanese government have been achieved.

Whither the responsibility to protect?

Simon Rosenblum is a member of the board of directors of the World Federalists of Canada.

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