There is a rather inspiring,
video on the Internet on the challenges faced by Somali athletes training
for the 2012 Olympic Summer Games in London. If you have ten minutes
to spare, Google “Somalis Train on the Road of Death”. Quite a
difference between them and the cosseted athletes in much of the rest
of the world.
GLEANINGS VERSION
II
No. 409 - May 12th,
2011
ONE-THIRD OF WORLD’S
FOOD WASTED (NYT, John Collins Rudolf)
- A study done by the Swedish
Institute for Food & Biotechnology for the FAO made public on May
12th, says that, while the world may be on the brink of a
food crisis, it isn’t for a lack of food. For one-third of all food
produced globally is lost or wasted each year. While this is divided
quantitatively fairly equally between the industrialized & the
developing worlds, on a per capita basis it’s far greater in the former.
And the reasons for these food losses are dramatically different : in
the developed world it is largely due to retailers & consumers alike
throwing away ‘perfectly edible food stuffs’, while in the latter
it is a function of harvesting-, processing-, distribution- & infrastructure
inadequacies. It concludes that, while there is lots of scope for improvement
in the latter, little effort is being made to study, or develop solutions
for, these problems.
There isn’t enough
money for the American agricultural-industrial complex
to address these problems in the developing world’s systems &
to willingness among decision makers in this area of human
endeavour to give them any degree of priority & to think
“outside the box” in dealing with them.
DON’T BLAME YOUR
ECONOMIC MESS ON THE MASSES (NYT, Paul Krugman)
- More & more I hear from
self-appointed wise men, officials & pundits that the recent economic
disasters were the fault of voters wanting something for nothing &
of weak-kneed politicians catering to the electorate’s foolishness.
This blame-the-public view is self-serving & dead wrong. For it
was a top-down disaster : the policies that caused them weren’t responses
to public demands but to those by individuals with influence who now
hector us on the need to address the resultant mess. The man in the
street wasn’t responsible for ideology-driven Bush tax cuts, the military
adventures in Iraq & Afghanistan, and the reckless deregulation-prompted
Great Recession. Europe’s crisis too it was brought on by the elite’s
bad judgment calls, not the greediness of the common man. While the
official story there too is that governments catered unduly to the masses,
promising too much & collecting too few taxes, that may have been
true for Greece, but wasn’t for Ireland & Spain, both of whom
had low debt & budget surpluses on eve of the crisis. And the real
story behind Europe’s crisis was the creation of a single currency,
an idea imposed by the elite on highly reluctant voters.
- As to the question why we
should be concerned about the blame for bad policies being shifted onto
the general public, one reason is accountability : those who advocated
the budget-busting policies of the Bush era should not now be allowed
to pass themselves off as deficit hawks & those who praised Ireland
as a role model should not be permitted to lecture people on responsible
government. The other is that if we allow those who caused the current
mess to be absolved from blame, we risk having the power elites doing
even more damage in the future.
He is right, but only
up to a point. As is so often the case in his writings, he is blinkered
by traditional left-of-centre thinking. The power elites made the fateful
decisions but it was the voters who put them,
& kept them, in positions where they could do so.
As to the hoi polloi’s greed, their reaction across much of the developed
world to proposals to return to fiscal sanity by
encroaching on their entitlements speaks for itself.
BOEHNER :
‘TRILLIONS’ IN CUTS LOOM IN DEBT
VOTE (AP, Andrew Taylor)
- He told the Economic Club
of New York on May 9th that any increase in the debt limit
must be accompanied by spending cuts larger than that, saying “It’s
true that allowing America to default would be irresponsible ... But
it would be more irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling without simultaneously
taking dramatic steps to reduce spending and reform the budget process
... To increase the debt limit without simultaneously addressing
the drivers of our debt - in defiance of the will of the people - would
be monumentally arrogant and massively irresponsible”. Thus he
implies a need to cut Medicare, food stamps & Medicaid only a few
days after other prominent Republicans, incl. House Majority Leader
Eric Cantor (R.-Va), seemed to suggest that political realities
ruled out doing so prior to the 2012 election. He also insisted “tax
hikes should be off the table” & that “If we don’t act boldly
now, the markets will act for us pretty soon ... We cannot let this
moment pass.” (the latter likely intended as a sop to his audience).
His aim audience was
suitably ‘underwhelmed’ & gave
him only a “polite” applause. At last report Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell had gone on record saying that he wouldn’t vote for
a debt ceiling hike in the absence of major spending cuts that would
include Medicare & Medicaid & there are now said to be growing
numbers of Republicans who are sceptical of the August 2nd
‘drop dead’ date for increasing it.
MORTGAGE RATE OVERHAUL
MAY PUSH U.S. HOME LOAN RATES ABOVE 8% (Bloomberg)
- Pursuant the Dodd-Frank
Act of 2010, federal regulators are now proposing the introduction,
effective January 1st, 2012, Qualified Residential Mortgages
(QRMs) that could be securitized without the sponsoring bank having
to put 5% of the issue on its own books. They would require 20%
downpayments & limit housing debt to 36% of the borrower’s income
(the benchmark three decades ago). The Washington-based Mortgage Bankers’
Association claims this could raise mortgage rates for those unable
to qualify by up to 300 bps (over & above the 100 bp rise in mortgage
rates it is already forecasting for the next year). This, & the
Administration’s plan to shrink Fannie & Freddie & to make
it harder to get FHA-insured mortgages, could put paid to expectations
that in 2012 house prices would start rising again, however modestly.
Of the mortgages
held by Fannie & Freddie 70% don’t meet QRM standards. And the
MBA says each 100 bp rise in rates excludes 4MM people from the housing
market.
VETS OPPOSE BILL
THAT RAISES HEALTH CARE FEES (AP, Donna Cassata)
- Healthcare fees for working
age military retirees haven’t changed in a over decade, with singles
paying US$2.50/month & families US$5.00 for coverage that would
cost civilian federal employees & other US citizens US$5,000/year
(partly as a result of which the Pentagon’s out-of-pocket
healthcare costs have almost tripled in nine years US$53BN. The Defence
Bill unveiled on May 9th would raise that to US$230/year
for singles & twice that for families and, starting in 2013, would
index them to rising healthcare costs. This has drawn fierce opposition
from the 2.1MM-strong VFW (Veterans of Foreign Wars).
It’s hard to generate
much sympathy for its position.
THE MISSING FIFTH
(NYT, David Brooks)
- Americans have long been known
for their manic dynamism. But they may be getting less so. For, while
in 1954 96% of American men between the ages of 25 & 54 worked,
today it’s more like 80%; i.e. one out of every five men in their
prime working years isn’t getting up in the morning to go to work.
According to the OECD the US now has the lowest share of working age
men in its work force among the G-7 countries. And while a decade ago
5MM Americans collected federal disability benefits, today that number
stands at 8.2MM.
- This is in part due to a lack
of skills. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics over one-third
of those without a high school diploma are out of the work force, vs
one in ten college graduates. And as some industries that traditionally
employed the less well-educated, like agriculture, manufacturing &
energy, become more productive they do so by employing more machinery
or foreign workers, not by creating more jobs for Americans. And the
longer people don’t work, the more they are corrupted by the corrosive
culture of idleness.
- This problem cannot be solved
by the Keynesian stimulus dream of the Left, nor by the public sector
shrinking mantra of the Right. It will require a range of new policies,
incl. the adoption of such German-style programs like apprenticeship
programs & wage subsidies. Bringing them back into the work force
will take money and, if we were smart, we would now be debating how
to shift money from programs that provide comfort towards those that
spark innovation. But that’s not what is happening. This leads to
the question whether we should use our resources in the manner of a
nation in decline or to stoke the energy of our people in a manner that
would continue its rise.
These numbers may
overstate the problem by not counting those beavering away in the underground
economy, incl. the drug trade. But
it does strike a potential death blow to the hopes of the optimists
that the Americans somehow will get their s$%^ together.
US MARCH OPENINGS
HIGHEST IN 2 ½ YEARS (Reuters)
- The Labor Department reported
on May 11th that job openings rose by 99,000 to 3½MM, it’s
highest level since September 2008 & only the second time since
November 2008 of back-to-back 3+MM monthly levels.
While a significant
gauge of the demand for labour, their current number dwindles into significance
compared to the number of those who are unemployed & looking for
a job.
US TRADE DEFICIT
WIDENED MORE THAN EXPECTED (Reuters)
- In March it rose to US$48.2BN,
vs. February’s US$45.4BN & a US$47BN forecast, as exports grew
4.6% to US$172.7BN & imports 4.9% to US$220.8BN
The average price
of imported oil hit US$93.76/bbl, a post-September 2008 high.
NEW YORK CITY MUST
FIX ITS PENSION MESS (NBCNews, Gabe Pressman)
- Next year pensions &
workers’ benefits will eat up US$16.4BN, 35% of its revenues. In ten
years the cost of pensions has risen from US$1.2BN to US$8BN
Politicians have long
been avoiding labour strife by making pension
promises that someone else would have to deal with at a later date.
But the buck has stopped now &
this will be only one of the many unpleasantries facing
Americans in the next decade.
ALBERTA’S WATER
IS NOT FOR SALE (EJ, Keith Gerein)
- Following a May 11th
speech in Geneva Nestle Chairman Peter Brabeck told reporters that
water should be traded on an exchange, that “We are actively dealing
with the government of Alberta to think about a water exchange” &
that Alberta would be a good place to start due to the growing competition
for water between agricultural & energy producers and that, if its
price determined by supply & demand, it would encourage users to
treat it with more respect & help curb a shrinking availability
of fresh water in many parts of the world.
- While an Alberta Environment
spokesperson denied negotiations are taking place to create a water
exchange, her Minister acknowledged there was an emerging debate around
the idea as a means of encouraging water conservation & said that,
while he didn’t recall speaking to any Nestle executives, he had heard
from many people on the issue. And later in the Legislature, after opposition
members levied all kinds of nonsensical charges, he told MLAs to put
away “their conspiracy theories ... since Alberta’s water is not
for sale.”
- This came in the wake of
a report by a government-appointed economic panel that recommended,
among others, that the province adopt a market system to allow water
allocations to be sold or leased at prices determined by supply &
demand. And there is already an informal market place of sorts whereby
holders of water licenses can transfer, trade or sell any or all of
their water allotments to others (such as happened when a major shopping
centre being constructed outside Calgary, faced with a government
freeze on the issuance of new water licenses, bought part of the
water allotment of an irrigation district).
There are two separate
issues. One is to achieve the most efficient distribution of Alberta
water within Alberta among local users & the other the question
of water exports. The former is a harbinger of things to come across
the globe & a more transparent arrangement than the existing one
would likely be beneficial, and the latter one that will become increasingly
important in the years to come, given the growing demand for water South
of the border in part due to its profligate use & a delusion down
there Canada has an endless supply thereof. As such, anybody in his
right mind should be in favour of the former, and oppose, or at least
delay judgment on, the latter (having said that, it’s worth remembering
that on both sides of the border North Americans’ per capita water
consumption is two or three times that of most European countries, more
than five times that in Israel, and twenty to thirty times that of the
Palestinians).
A FATAH-HAMAS DEAL
(NYT, Editorial)
- To succeed all Palestinians
must work together. But the Fatah-Hamas deal is not the answer. For
the latter has never renounced its legacy of violence nor agreed to
recognize Israel. Replacing Salam Fayyad as Prime Minister ignores his
role in building the West Bank’s economy & institutions.
Merging the two security forces will be problematic & put at risk
the millions of dollars the US spent helping to build a credible Fatah
security force.
- Israel has reason to mistrust
the deal. So Netanyahu has suspended tax remittances & wants Washington
to end all aid to the Abbas government. While Obama has adopted
a wait-and-see attitude, Congress talks tough. Abbas thinks the deal
will boost the chances of UN recognition of Palestinian statehood &
chose to deal with his enemies out of despair about the stalled peace
process. No one knows Hamas’ motives although there are rumours of
friction with Syria & a desire for better ties with the new Egyptian
government.
- The Quartet must tell any
new Palestinian government that its moves will be scrutinized
& that firing Fayyad would be a mistake, Hamas that it must quit
firing rockets into Israel & recognize its right to exist, &
Netanyahu to get himself back to the peace table since a negotiated
peace is the only way to guarantee Israel’s security. And it’s up
to Obama to put a deal on the table; for Israel & the Palestinians
won’t break the stalemate on their own.
There is no doubt
that Fayyad has done a stellar job in positioning the PA for statehood;
but like everyone else he is not indispensable. And different circumstances
call for different skills sets in Prime Ministers. Netanyahu,
the US Jewish lobby & the New York Times
may not like the deal, but the reality is that
it’s the only one in town &, moreover, that it is an internal
Palestinian issue. And the only reason for it having come to this
has been Netanyahu’s his tendency to overplay its hand, counting on
‘divide & conquer’ to keep Fatah & Hamas at each other’s
throats. And Hamas, years ago already
offered Israel a multi-year cease-fire (which it turned down as
‘not being good enough’).
FRANCE INCREASES
AID TO PALESTINIANS (EJ, World Digest)
- On May 9th France
announced it would donate 10MM Euros (US$13.8MM) to the Palestinian
Authority after Prime Minister Salam Fayyad had told reporters, after
Israel froze tax revenue transfers following the Palestinian unity agreement,
that his government would be unable to pay its employees.
This came the day
after Israel criticized the EU, accusing it of a
“certain incoherence”, for boosting its aid to the Palestinians
by 85MM Euros after Israel had announced it would withhold the transfer
of 60MM Euros in tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority
‘until it could be sure that the money would not go to Hamas’, a
move criticized across the world & in Israel itself by, among others,
Netanyahu’s Defence Minister Ehud Barak). It is becoming clearer &
clearer that Israel is becoming more & more isolated in its stance
on the Palestinian issue & that the time is growing shorter &
shorter for it being able to negotiate a deal that would enable it to
achieve even a modicum of its objectives.
THE QUEST OF A
BILLIONAIRE MEDIATOR AND POSSIBLE LEADER
(G&M, Patrick
Martin)
- Munib Rashid Masri is a 75
year-old University of Texas-educated millionaire businessman &
philanthropist who (aided by a rare VIP pass issued by Israel that enables
him travel at will between the West Bank & Gaza with a minimum of
fuss) was a key go-between in the reconciliation between Fatah &
Hamas & who could be their choice to head the interim Palestinian
government (in the past, when his business took more of his time,
he was offered to post of Prime Minister three times only to turn it
down each time).
- Interviewed at his home overlooking
Nablus, he said “I want to see a state of Palestine before I die ...
For the past four years I have worked 10 hours a day on this”, that
when he first met Yasser Arafat in 1963 he “didn’t like him ...
But came to love the man”, but that he never joined his Fatah movement
since “my party was Palestine ... nothing more” & that, while
as a secular Muslim he didn’t support Hamas’ religious agenda “once
they were elected [in 2006] ... I accepted their place in the leadership
... Over the years ... I’ve warmed to them ... When they make a decision
, they stick to it ... I respect that.”
- He believes Hamas made the
big concessions : “Look at the three big points Meshaal made in his
speech at the May 4th reconciliation signing
in Cairo ... He accepted the ‘67 borders, said he’d give negotiations
a try and … would engage in any armed resistance only if the PA[ Palestinian
Authority] agreed” (Khaled Mashaal is Hamas’ Syria-based
leader). Even so, he acknowledged “the biggest hurdles are still
to come ... Building confidence between the people in the two factions
is the most important thing ... there are so many doubters. I hate all
this pessimism.” As to what would be hardest for Hamas to accept,
he said “all the treaties from before , including the PLO’s agreements
with Israel (one of which recognizes Israel) ... I’m sure they’ll
recognize Israel when the time is right ... Why should they do it now?”
The biggest obstacle, he said, is Israel : “They’re undermining
the deal …This reconciliation is not ‘catastrophic” (as Netanyahu
claims).
There you have it
: pragmatism rather than dogmatism. And in life more often than not
the former triumphs over the latter (Mr. Masri has extensive business
interests all across North Africa & the Arab Middle East that are
now being run on a day-to-day basis by some of his six children, with
his flagship corporate entity being EDGO, a London-based drilling company.
He is a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and, many years
ago briefly was a Jordanian Cabinet Minister).
GREEK DISASTER
RISKS EUROZONE ‘CONTAGION’ (AF-P)
- On May 10th experts
from the EU, IMF & ECB began an audit of the finances & reforms
in Greece to determine if it merits a critical new funding slice from
last year’s 110BN Euro bailout package, a routine exercise that always
creates nervousness in Greece because of the recommendations & conditionalities
it produces for the next disbursement. Greece is struggling to meet
its deficit reduction targets due to a deeper-than-expected recession
and the next 12BN Euro instalment is critical to its finances. That
same day Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a member of the ECB Board (responsible
for international & European relations) told the Italian Daily
La Stampa a default or restructuring would hit the entire Eurozone
& would bring the Greek banking system “on its knees”, and warned
of “the contagion that a Greek disaster would inflict on the eurozone.”
Despite Prime Minister
George Papandreou’s assurances that
“we’ll take the necessary decisions ... to ensure we get out of
this crisis” & that an overwhelming majority supports his government’s
austerity measures, there continue to be periodic protest strikes, the
latest of which was expected to paralyze travel on May 11th.