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Reflections on world economy and more by Nick Rost van Tonningen of Canada
July 11th, 2011
Wet conditions this spring
resulted in Western Canadian farmers being unable to seed 6+MM (2.4+MM
hectares), roughly one-tenths of their crop land, & in a significant
portion of their seeding not taking place until after the date for optimum
yields & minimum risk of frost damage before harvest time. This
means there will potentially at least 12% less Canadian wheat flowing
into international trade channels, i.e. 2% of total global wheat production
(the amount by which global wheat consumption is expected to grow
this year). This will also be equal to 10% of China’s wheat
production, 15% of India’s, 20% of that of each of Russia & the
US, one-third of France’s, & over half Australia’s. To make
matters worse recent heavy & prolonged rains in many areas (the
Edmonton area received one months’-worth in two days) has all but
ensured that many more acres seeded will be “drowned out”, causing
major, if not total, losses). Combined with the current heatwave across
much of the main US grain growing areas this may also have an impact
on yields, affecting the availability of North American grain for export.
In his book The Origins
of Political Order Francis Fukuyama assesses the US political system
thusly : “The United States seems increasingly caught in a dysfunctional
political equilibrium, where everyone agrees on the necessity of addressing
long-term fiscal issues, but powerful interest groups can block the
spending cuts or tax increases necessary to close the gap. The design
of the country’s institutions, with strong checks and balances, makes
a solution harder.” And David Brooks wrote in the New York Times “the
core issue is the accumulation of deeper structural problems that
the recession has exposed - unsustainable levels of debt, an inability
to generate middle class incomes, a dysfunctional political system,
the steady growth of special interest sinecures, and the gradual loss
of national vitality” (&, one might add, a mindset among business-,
political-, & bureaucratic elites that
‘everyone is in it for themselves’).
Rather interestingly both use the same term “dysfunctional”.
Albertsons, a leading
US grocery chain, is doing away with self-checkout lanes since “we
want the opportunity to talk to customers more.” This is of course
nonsense. Checkout staff doesn’t have, & would likely be reprimanded
if they made, the time to ‘chat up’ their customers; in fact, customers
in the self-checkout lanes likely have more opportunities for one-on-one
exposure to store staff who ostensibly are there to help them
if they have any problems (but really are there is to try & reduce
the scope for shop lifting - Wal-Mart in Edmonton did away with self-checkouts
a while ago because too many goods left its stores without being paid
for).
There recently was a
general election in Thailand. Voting there is compulsory but voters
have an ‘out’ : each ballot paper
carries, in addition to the names of the candidates, also a box saying
“NO” so that voters can indicate they don’t care for any
of the candidates. One can only wonder what the result might be if Western
democracies adopted this practice; but we are unlikely to ever find
out since those would have to vote it in would (justifiably?)
be fearful of the outcome.
Floods are becoming a
dime a dozen. Obvious man-made causes in specific watersheds include
one or more of the following : deforestation, the draining of wet lands
that once acted as sponge-like temporary rainwater storage, paving in
urban areas adjacent to rivers that speed up the discharge of rain fall
into rivers, & the canalization of those same rivers. Now, according
to environmentalists, another, overarching, global factor has been added
: global warming. For warm air can hold more moisture & thus
carry more evaporated ocean water inland.
A while ago The Economist
floated some ideas on how China might use its US$2.85TR in exchange
reserves (as of last December 31st) more creatively than
by mindlessly investing two-thirds thereof in increasingly
dodgy UST securities (although there are indications that it
has started doing less of that). It could use them to buy any, or
any combination, of the following : all the farm land in the US for
US$1.87TR, all the PIIGS’ souvereign debt (thereby solving the
impending Eurozone debt crisis) or all of the Pentagon’s non-weaponry
assets (i.e. all its land, buildings & investments) for US$1.5TR
each, all the monetary gold in the world for slightly less than that,
Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for an aggregate US$916BN,
or all real estate in Manhattan & Washington, DC for US$287BN &
US$232BN respectively (similarly
in the 80's when the land value of Tokyo’s Imperial Gardens exceeded
that of all real estate in California).
An interesting chart
recently showed the ownership distribution of the world’s oil &
gas reserves. Head & shoulders above all were Iran’s NOIC &
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, each with about 300BN BOE each (the former
slightly more ‘gassy” than “oily” & the latter mostly oily).
Then a cluster of four with reserves in the 200-100 BN bbl. range (Russia’s
Gazprom & Qatar Petroleum - both gassy-, and the UAE’s ADNOC &
Iraq’s NOC - both oily). Much later, as Nos. 14, 17 & 20, came
Exxon, BP & Shell with between 20-10BN bbl of reserves each (both
of the former evenly split between oil & gas with the latter rather
gassy). All in all, state-owned or controlled companies control 94%
of the world’s known oil & gas reserves. What a wonderful position
for Alberta to be in with its huge oil sands reserves being among the
few reserves oil companies can actually “own”, if only the Alberta
government had the street smarts to a) take advantage by demanding a
more equitable sharing of the spoils & b) insist on their environmentally
less controversial development, and Ottawa had the cojones to tell assorted
environmental groups, & Indian bands astride the proposed route,
that new gas (& oil) pipelines from Alberta to the West Coast to
gain access to world markets, rather than remaining a captive supplier
to the US only, were in the national interest, period, full stop!
Along the Venezuelan-Columbian
border, car owners are having a wonderful, & very profitable, time
filling up with gasoline for 2¢/litre on their side of-, & then
crossing-, the border to have it syphoned out of their gas tanks on
the Columbian side for as much as a 4,000% markup. Human ingenuity knows
no bounds where money is concerned, especially when it comes to arbitraging
stupid government decisions!
After taking an almost
25% “hit” in 2008, Norway’s souvereign wealth fund, after close
to doubling since then, recently became the world’s largest (with
US$574BN in assets it accounted for one-eighth of the total assets of
all such funds). Launched in 1990, 14 years after the Alberta Heritage
Savings Trust Fund (AHSTF), it is now over 30x the latter’s size &
has grown from a standing start to its current size in the same time
that the AHSTF grew by just a mere 50% (in current dollar terms).
With assets valued at a multiple of Norway’s budget (whereas the AHSTF
is less than half Alberta’s), it is well on its way to become more
than ‘rainy day fund’ : with US$120,000 in it for every Tom, Dick
& Harry among Norway’s almost 5MM people, & still growing
from both income generated & new inflows, it is on a course to becoming
a genuine, sustainable perpetual income security fund for future generations
of Norwegians against the day its oil & gas reserves will be depleted.
And it has been able to set aside this kind of money despite not entirely
dissimilar levels of oil & gas production on a BOE basis & GDPs
per capita, and despite the fact that the Norwegian government’s budget
eats up a far greater share of its GDP than the Alberta government’s
does of Alberta’s by simply insisting the industry shares the benefits
of the resources owned by the Norwegian with them in a fair & equitable
manner (and contrary to the bill of goods that has long been sold to
Alberta politicians, that has not held back their development).
Nigeria has an oil revenue
stream of US$40BN annually. In theory that should have enabled it to
build a prosperous country, perhaps even the leading country in sub-Sahara
Africa, rather than South Africa. But here, as elsewhere, resource wealth
spawned corruption & thievery, in Nigeria’s case on a scale equalled
in few, if any, other countries (it ranks near the bottom in any global
corruption ‘league table’). According to the Economist many Nigerians
believe legislators’ salaries should be cut so as to ‘attract fewer
cowboys’ (MPs officially make US$2MM a year, in a country where 70%
of its 155MM people must survive on < US$2/day, & only God knows
how much on the side - the Speaker of the Lower House was recently investigated
for “misappropriating US$140MM”).
The Globe
& Mail’s Patrick Martin spent months inside Gaza learning more
about, & getting acquainted with the leaders of, Hamas. Following
are three of his observations :
- The official line is that,
when the first intifada began in the winter of 1987-88, young men armed
with stones confronted Israeli soldiers (not unlike recent events in
the Arab world when young people typically employed non-violent &
lo-tech tactics to confront armed soldiers) but that, as time passed
& Palestinian casualties mounted, stones gave way to fire bombs,
& then to small arms. Furthermore, that the first suicide attack
targeting Israeli civilians took place on April 6, 1994, six
weeks after an Israeli settler, Baruch Goldstein, a physician &
reserve army officer, had killed 29, & wounded dozens more, Palestinians
at prayer in the mosque at Abraham’s tomb in Hebron. This, say Hamas
leaders, changed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; for if Palestinians
at prayer could be attacked, why should Israeli civilians not be targeted?
And although in 2005 Hamas renounced the suicide bombing methodology,
a decision made by Khaled Mashaal, it’s Damascus-based leader, shortly
after he became its leader, many Hamas extremists still justify attacks
on Israeli civilians, incl. Ayman Batniji, the imam of a major Gaza
mosque who asks “When Israeli planes hit a neighbourhood full of civilians,
because they want to arrest a wanted person, and kill 30 or 40 people
by using a one-tone bomb, isn’t that excessive use of force?”
- While Ephraim Sneh, a retired
brigadier-general & former Israeli Cabinet Minister, rejects the
idea of a long-term truce, as mooted from time to time by Hamas, since
“The long-term reality is that Hamas is never going to tolerate a
Jewish state because it is against its religious beliefs”, Efraim
Halevy, a former director-general of Mossad, was among the first to
advocate talking to Hamas, saying “They’re not very pleasant people
... but they are very, very credible” and, while he called two
of the Quartet’s ‘principles’ (renounce violence & abide by
all previous diplomatic agreements) “reasonable and imperative”,
he called the third, recognition of Israel, “superfluous”; and
- In mid-May, after the Hamas/Fatah
reconciliation, Israeli President Shimon Peres said negotiations with
Hamas shouldn’t be ruled out, if it renounced terrorism. Indeed, to
be broadly acceptable as a negotiating partner, Hamas will have to convince
the Quartet it renounced violence - if Hamas were clever, it
would seek to tilt world opinion in its favour, & force Netanyahu’s
hand, by releasing Gilead Shalit, the IDF soldier kidnapped five years
ago on the Gaza-Israel border.
It is unlikely Hamas
will fade away even though many people in Gaza are frustrated by its
inability to deliver a better life (which it may now be able to correct
since the border with Egypt is more open). And though some people in
the West Bank may be reluctant to jeopardize the good life they now
enjoy, Hamas’ hardline stance towards Israel still appeals to many
Palestinians.
GLEANINGS VERSION
II
No. 417SP - July
11th, 2011
LESSONS LEARNT
FROM THE GREAT RECESSION
(Second Act, Karin
Price-Mueller)
- The recession has taught us
that we can make it on less; we may not want to, but we can. Following
are six lessons worth incorporating into one’s financial life :
- Use more cash & borrow
less;
- Be sure to build an emergency
fund;
- Setting priorities is critical;
- Budget is not a dirty word;
- Being a penny-pincher is smart,
not cheap; and
- Take charge of your investments.
These are common sense
concepts alien to much of the instant gratification generation(s).
PROPER USE OF ASPIRIN
FOR HEART DISEASE SPELLED OUT
(G&M, Andre
Picard)
- Many physicians tell patients
to take a baby Aspirin daily after age 50 to avoid heart problems. But
the first-ever ‘antiplatelet therapy guidelines’ published by the
Canadian Cardiovascular Society on June 6th warns that, while
everyone who has had a heart attack or a stroke should take low dose
ASA for the rest of their lives, since that can cut the risk of a repeat
thereof by as much as 25%, those with no such history should not routinely
do so; for there is no evidence its benefits its risks (among others,
there is clear evidence regular use thereof can cause serious stomach
problems).
In an interview on
CBC Radio recently, a Montreal medical school professor who, among others,
teaches a course on the use of placebos in medicine (incl. the prescription
of dosages too low to do any good) said there is growing evidence they
often work just as well as the real thing,
even when patients know they aren’t, & that as
many as 25% of doctors may routinely prescribe them.
BIOFUEL BOOSTERS
BLAMED FOR RISE IN FOOD PRICES
(Reuters, Charlie
Dunmore)
- A report by ten international
agencies, incl. the World Bank, WTO, WFP, the IMF, FAO & OECD, mandated
by the G-20, says governments should scrap all policies to support biofuels.
For they say they force up, & add volatility to, food prices. It
notes that in 2007-2009 20% of all sugar cane grown went into biofuels,
as did 9% of all oilseeds & coarse grains, and 4% of all sugar beets.
Biofuels have also been criticized for promoting deforestation especially
to make room for palm (oil) plantations which can make their carbon
footprint greater than that of fossil fuels. On the other hand, the
report didn’t take into account the use of biofuel by-products as
animal feed (which helps mitigate their impact on food supplies),
which US producers now claim generates most of their profits.
- France has made food price
volatility a priority of its 2011 G-20 Presidency & is leading the
charge to crack down on speculation in commodities markets, blaming
it for rising food prices. The G-20 Agriculture Ministers will meet
in Paris on June 22nd & 23rd to discuss policy
responses ranging from increasing market transparency (the French notion
of a need for better food stock data gathering) to limiting the speculative
positions taken by traders in the commodities markets, but biofuels
are not on the agenda.
Much of the biofuel
thing was ill-conceived. Thus the energy efficiency of grain-based,
as opposed to sugar cane-based, ethanol
is by the most favourable estimates marginally in excess of 1.00 &
by the most critical ones actually negative (i.e. taking more energy
to produce than the ethanol contains). But it is now so engrained in
America’s farm landscape & political system, complete with a powerful
cabal of lobbyists, that it will be difficult to dislodge (while earlier
in the Republican-Democratic debt ceiling tussle the US$ 6BN that Washington
spends each year on ethanol subsidies
seemed to be an agreed-on candidate for the
axe, that notion has since gone silent). Be that as it may, this approach
treats symptoms, not the disease. The real reasons for the rising food
prices are more fundamental. They include waste in the developed-, &
a lack of infrastructure in the developing-, worlds, decades of First
World farm subsidies that undermined the viability of developing country
agriculture by the ‘dumping’ of the resultant surpluses, the loss
of some of the world’s most productive farm land to urbanization,
industrialization & salinization, declining availability of water
for irrigation, and under-investment in agriculture (thus
in Nigeria in 1997 17% of all bank loans went to farmers, while today
it’s < 1.5%; so it now imports, rather than exports, grain
while half of its own harvest went to waste due to a lack of infrastructure),
& (partially climate change-prompted?) natural disasters. All of
these, except the last one, are amenable to correction by legislative
action, if the political will was there (& even the effect of the
last one could likely be mitigated by appropriate legislation).
THE GREAT CORN
CON (NYT, Steven Rattner)
- In its myriad of corn-related
interventions Washington has helped to drive up food prices, add billions
to the deficit, boost energy use & harm the environment. Legislation
in 2005 & 2007 turbocharged the production of ethanol by mandating
specific, & rising, requirements for its use in gasoline. As a result,
the share of the US crop, the country’s most important farm crop by
far, that accounts for 40% of the world’s total corn crop, going into
ethanol has quadrupled to 40% since 2004. Nevertheless, ethanol is a
poor substitute for gasoline, packing less punch & requiring substantial
amounts of water & energy in its production. In total its support
programmes for the corn complex cost the US Treasury US$11BN/year (with
a 45¢/gallon subsidy on ethanol accounting for half of it). There is
also a 54¢/gallon duty on imported ethanol, most of it originating
from Brazil where it can be produced far more energy efficiently from
sugar cane (which avoids the energy-intensive corn-to-sugar conversion
stage). Subsidies have made US ethanol so cheap that in 2010
we exported 397MM gallons (at a cost to the US Treasury of US$700+MM
since each gallon produced costs it US$1.78). So we import costly foreign
oil & export subsidized ethanol. And as to its environmental aspects,
the CBO has calculated that the reduction in CO2 emissions from using
ethanol comes at a cost of at least an incredible
US$750 per ton of carbon.
Politics these days
has little to do with common sense, only with vote-gathering.
FUTURIST WARNS
OF MASS EXTINCTIONS (EJ, Dave Cooper)
- Jeremy Rifkin told an Edmonton
audience in May the world faces disaster as our fossil-fuelled civilization
pushes the planet towards one of the greatest species extinctions in
450MM years and that, while we have the tools to lessen the damage &
transform society in the next 30 years, it is already too late to avoid
some damage as a warming atmosphere is creating more unstable weather
& causing more species to go extinct. He says the latest research
suggests the earlier forecast of a 3 C rise in temperature this century
“is now looking optimistic” which “will put us back to the climate
of three million years ago, when there was a much different ecosystem”,
and that for every one degree of temperature rise ... , the atmosphere
absorbs about seven percent more precipitation from the ground.”
A recent
news ‘byte’ on CBC referenced a report the world’s oceans are
in far worse shape than hitherto believed, and face an unprecedented
extinction of species.
PROTECTION FOR
LIZARD MAY THREATEN WEST TEXAS OIL
(Houston Chronicle,
Matthew Tresague)
- The Tucson, Ariz.-based Center
for Biological Diversity in 2002 petitioned US Fish & Wildlife to
place the 3 inch-long sagebrush lizard on the endangered species list
due to habitat destruction in its West Texas & Southeastern New
Mexico sand dunes’ range from oil industry activities & cattle
grazing (ranchers have been using herbicides to kill a local shrub called
spinnery oak that is critical to the lizard’s survival). In 2004 USF&W
agreed but it didn’t finalize its proposal to do so until last
December with a final decision set for next December. But the lizard’s
range is in the Permian Basin which accounts for 17% of the US domestic
oil production. This is now pitting the oil industry and state &
local officials against the environmentalists. The former claim that
the 30,000 acres (50 square miles) involved will put the brakes on drilling
and road- & pipeline construction in seven West Texas counties,
incl. the state’s top two oil producing ones, with the State’s Land
Commissioner, Jerry Patterson calling it a case of “reptile dysfunction”.
On the other hand proponents say that even if 600,000 acres (i.e.
937 square miles, i.e. less than the average size of one of Texas’
254 counties) were involved that would account for just 1%
of the Permian Basin and Patrick Parenteau, a Vermont Law School professor,
who in the 90's was special counsel at the Fish & Wildlife Service,
says that “The notion that a listing will bring everything to a screeching
halt simply isn’t true.”
The issue is further
complicated by the fact that in Texas the proceeds of oil leases &
royalties is earmarked for funding education.
OUR FANTASY NATION
(NYT, Nicholas D. Kristof)
- The Tea Party Republicans
insist on the need to ‘slay the beast of government, and cut taxes
& regulations, and social services’, and want low taxes, a big
defence budget, traditional religious values & no coddling of criminals.
There are countries ranging from Congo through Columbia to Pakistan
that have such systems : low taxes, free-wheeling business & high
military expenditures and ... high levels of inequality. They have shiny
tanks & jet fighters but cannot pay their teachers, and their societies
are stratified by social class & held back by a limited sense of
common purpose.
- The growing inequality in
America pains me. Higher education has traditionally been the escalator
to a better life; so reduced college access is a scandal. But the small
global ueber-rich upper class that runs things doesn’t
need social services. Their kids go to private schools. They can pay
for their healthcare. They hire private security guards so as not to
have to depend for their security on the police. And they often have
their own diesel generators to ensure their air conditioning units keep
humming. Our public policy debate is less about the debt ceiling &
about cutting budgets than about our vision for the country.
Many Tea Party supporters
have never been outside North America and, even if they have,
likely saw life there from balconies high up in the local Holiday Inn
.
ERA OF LOW AIRFARES
IS OVER (Business Aviation, Shweta Jain)
- Brian Pearce, IATA’s Chief
Economist, told Gulf News during its recent Annual Meeting in Singapore
“We are looking at a fare increase of at least 5 percent this year,
owing to a surge in oil prices ... and that is with the industry having
hedged 50 percent of this year’s fuel bills ... Had they not done
that, it would have been twice the impact.” And Emirates President,
Tim Clark, said “Emirates is probably one of the most efficient airlines
operating ... and we are finding it difficult. So if we are finding
it difficult, the industry will be finding it difficult.” (last year
fuel accounted for 34% of Emirates’ costs).
We’ve heard this
before. But airlines are their own worst enemy. They can always find
reasons to buy more planes & right now are on a kick of buying more
fuel-efficient ones to save money over the longer term. And once they
get them, the marginal cost of putting one more
‘bum in a seat’ is so minimal, & the bottom line impact so great,
that they always try to attract customers with fire sale fares. So for
wise shoppers there likely will continue to be bargains to be had.
THE GOOD BANKER
(NYT, Joe Nocera)
- The 77 year-old Robert G.
Wilmers has run the Buffalo, NY-based M&T Bank for 30 years. On
his watch its asset base grew from US$2BN to US$68BN & it became
one of the most highly-regarded regional bank holding companies (&
one of the best performers in the S&P 500, that maintained its dividend
throughout the financial crisis). Its 2010 Annual Report says, among
others, that most of the too-big-to-fail banks’ income is derived
from trading profits “rather than the prudent extension of credit
that furthers commerce”, that derivatives ought to be regulated, &
that the CEO’s of these banks are “wildly overpaid”, averaging
US$26MM in 2007, more than twice the average compensation of the
top non-bank CEO’s in the Fortune 500, & a multiple of Wimers’
US$2MM.
- In a follow-up interview
he expanded on this by saying the giant national banks had done things
that deserve condemnation & “are still doing things that I don’t
think are very good”, had turned banking into a casino rather than
a service industry that helped people keep their liquid assets safe,
and finance trade & commerce, that the six largest bank holding
companies depended for three-quarters of their revenues on trading,
giving them every incentive to take undue risks, & that the trading
of derivatives had little, if anything, to do with the underlying purpose
of banking (in contrast, JPMorganChase’s Jamie Dimon, supposedly one
of the brighter knives in the bank CEO drawer, recently pooh-poohed
the idea the system would be safer with smaller banks doing traditional
banking by saying it would also be safer if we went back to horses &
buggies.“
He has a point : while
once trading provided a service to, &
‘added value’ for, those owning financial assets, today this service
aspect has largely disappeared and been replaced by trading as
an end in itself, rather than a means to an end, & it has become
a game involving the reshuffling of the ownership of existing-, rather
than the creation of new productive-, assets.
SHRINKING SNOW
PACK THREATENS WATER SUPPLY
(Postmedia News, Margaret
Munro)
- A study published June 9th
in Science by an international research team reported the Rocky
Mountain snow pack has been dwindling for the last 30 years at an almost
unprecedented rate. This, they warn, will have serious implications
for the Colorado, Columbia & Missouri rivers which between them
supply water to 70MM Americans, and is altering flows in rivers North
of the border in Central BC & the Canadian Prairies, between “
60% & 80% ... (of which) is snowmelt from the mountains.” Going
back 800 years they found that the snow pack shrank more in the late
20th century that during any period since about
1200 (these results were based on a study of tree rings, incl. Alpine
larch at higher-, & Ponderosa pine at lower-, altitudes, in both
living- & dead trees, with one of the study’s co-authors, Brian
Luckman of the University of Western Ontario, saying “you can find
trees lying on the ground that died 300 to 400 years ago and (thus)
extend the chronology back.”
This is not the only
place where such an event is threatening local water supplies. The same
thing is happening in the Himalyas, the source of much of the
life-sustaining water for a major portion of the
one-third of the world’s population living in South & East Asia.
ALFALFA A KEY BATTLE
GROUND IN ORGANIC FARMING WAR
(G&M, Paul Waldie)
- Monsanto has developed a
genetically modified (GM) alfalfa, the main merit of which, like all
its GM seeds, is that it is designed to withstand, & thereby promote
the sale of, its herbicide Roundup (although it claims it helps boost
crop yields & reduce production costs). It recently won approval
in the US &and is under consideration for approval in Canada.
- Almost every organic farmer
in Canada grows alfalfa. For it is both an important source of animal
feed & a critical soil fertility builder that “fixes” nitrogen
from the air into the soil, thus obviating the need to use commercial
nitrogen fertilizers. They argue GM alfalfa will destroy their industry
that, while still small (at last report the sale of organic food &
drink products accounted for just 3½% of North American sales) has
been growing rapidly (worldwide its sales more than tripled in the decade
ended in 2008). One problem, they say, is that, unlike crops like corn
that are pollinated by wind, alfalfa is pollinated by insects that often
travel miles as they do so. So they are pressuring Ottawa not to approve
the GMit, and some have even joined a law suit filed against Monsanto
in New York that attacks its seed patents & seeks legal protection
for farmers if their crops are contaminated by GM products (the latter
is critical since Monsanto has been very aggressive in going after farmers
for alleged patent infringement, & often
has been given the benefit of the doubt by judges, when it has detected
traces of its patented seeds in the crops of farmers who aren’t on
their customer list, even when there has been a real possibility this
had been the result of wind-borne pollination, rather than of nefarious
activities by the farmer in question).
There is a precedent,
bovine somatotropin, a growth hormone
(developed by … Monsanto but now marketed by Eli Lilly,
that boosts dairy cows’ milk production, that is commonly used in
the US, was never approved for use in Canada (albeit under government
less prone to slavishly aping what the US does), or
by any other English-speaking country. Besides.
In the case of alfalfa the Monsanto argument is self-serving
& not based on hands-on farming realities; for while Roundup
can be said to be beneficial in crops like corn or small grain where
weed control is a problem because they are grown in a manner that lets
sunlight reach the soil, alfalfa is a ground-covering crop that
smothers weeds (in addition cows will happily eat most, if not all,
weeds that survive in a full shade environment.
Also the Monsanto approach that a hitech approach to farming will solve
the world’s food challenges is increasingly coming into question.
BIBI IS MIRED IN
A WORLD THAT HAS GONE AWAY (Daily Star, Fareed Zakaria)
- In 2008 then Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert, a hard liner himself, told the Knesset “We must give
up Arab neighbourhoods in Jerusalem and return to the core of the territory
that is the state of Israel prior to 1967, with minimal corrections
dictated by the realities since then”, a position similar to that
taken by his predecessor in the 90's, & now Netanyahu’s Defence
Minister, Ehud Barak. George Bush said that same year “I believe that
any peace agreement between them will require mutually agreed adjustments
to the armistice lines of 1949 (i.e. the 1967 borders) to reflect
current realities and to ensure that the Palestinian state is viable
and contiguous.” And last November Hilary Clinton & Netanyahu
issued a joint statement that read in part “The United States believes
that through good faith negotiations, the parties can mutually agree
on an outcome which ends the conflict and reconciles the Palestinian
goal of an independent and viable state based on the 1967 lines, with
agreed swaps, and the Israeli goal of a Jewish state with secure and
recognized borders that reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli
security requirements.”
- Netanyahu’s claim any discussion
of the 1967 borders is “treason” seeks to prop up his fragile coalition
& makes him look more interested in clinging to power for its own
sake than in using to the benefit of his people. And in his reference
to the “indefensible” 1967 borders he is mired in a world long gone
: the threat to Israel today is not from a Palestinian army but from
demographics as its democratic existence is undermined by it continuing
to rule millions of Palestinians in serf-like conditions (& both
the Palestinians & the bigoted settlers
“outbreed” by a country mile the secular Israelis who just want
to live in peace.
And Obama encouraged
him George Bush-like by condoning his refusal to have any truck or trade
with Hamas, & not refuting his demands for the total demilitarization
of any future Palestinian state. Harvard & Cambridge-educated Prof.
Theodor Meron, a teenage Holocaust survivor, started teaching at the
NYU School of Law in 1977, & more recently has been was a member
of the International Criminal Tribunals for Yugoslavia & Rwanda.
But earlier in his career, at the time of Israel’s Six-Day War in
1967, he was the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ legal advisor
&, in that capacity, he was asked by the then Israeli Prime Minister,
Levi Eshkol, if Israel could legally transfer its citizens to settlements
in the conquered Arab territories. His unequivocal opinion, presented
in a top secret memo to Eshkol, was
“civilian settlement in the administered territories contravenes explicit
provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention” (which, however, did not
stop the Prime Minister from launching the settlement movement). In
2007 Prof. Meron confirmed his authorship, stating he wouldn’t change
his opinion the settlements are illegal & in violation of international
law.
ISRAEL STRIKES
WATER PLANT DEAL (Bloomberg)
- Last month Israeli Finance
Minister Yuval Steinitz announced a US$400 MM plan to build what he
said would be the world’s second-largest desalination plant. It will
be Israel’s fourth such plant & he said that, once it comes on
stream, “desalinated water will constitute 65 percent of domestic
water consumption”. It is being built by a joint venture company owned
by IDE Technologies Ltd. (51%), a JV of Israel Chemicals Ltd. &
the Delek Group Ltd., and Hutchinson Water International Holdings Pte,
and is being financed by the EIB & local banks, incl. Bank Leumi
Le-Israel Ltd & Bank Hapoalim Ltd.
The Eastern Mediterranean
is basically a backwater. So one can only wonder about the long
term effect of desalination plants dumping the salt removed from its
water back into it. On the other hand, the more Israel can meet its
water needs from the sea water, the less need it has, in theory at least,
for the water from the river Jordan & the aquifers underlying its
West Bank settlements.
IRAQ’S RECONSTRUCTION
BILLIONS ‘MAY HAVE BEEN STOLEN’ (BBC News)
- During the era of severe
economic sanctions against the Saddam Hussein regime the New York Fed
accumulated US$6.6BN of Iraqi oil money in a special account. In 2003
& 2004 the Bush Administration sent it back to Iraq on C-130 military
cargo planes on pallets in shrink-wrapped bundles of bank notes. It
went missing & the Special Inspector-General for Iraq Reconstruction,
Stuart Bowen, told the Los Angeles Times this may well be the “largest
theft of funds” in national history. And the paper reported some officials
in Baghdad are now threatening to sue the US to recover the missing
cash.
Bowen has since denied
having said anything of the kind & that his finding had been that
it was “virtually impossible to account for what happened to the money”.
He also denied having been the source of the US$6.6BN figure.
Be that as it may, it is hard to imagine anyone being stupid enough
to choose this method of money transfer & not expect grievous losses.
THE WAR BEHIND
THE WAR IN YEMEN (G&M, George Clarfield)
- Some call it a struggle between
a Sunni-dominated government in the former communist South Yemen &
the Shiite tribes from the once independent North Yemen, and others
a battle between national elites fighting over scarce resources amidst
a population explosion. The latter is closest to the truth. Yemen has
one of the world’s highest birth rates : in 1953 its population was
4.3MM, today it’s 24+MM (half under the age of 15) & by mid-century
it is expected to be 60MM (i.e. close to, if not greater than, Germany’s
population). It has no industry to speak of. Most government revenue
comes from oil fields that may be depleted by 2017. Half the population
is functionally illiterate & 70% lives in rural areas under customary
tribal laws. Many Yemenis are addicted to khat, a narcotic leaf the
cultivation of which is pre-empting more & more farm land. And different
inheritance rules under customary tribal laws & national, sharia-based
inheritance laws add to the potential for conflicts over land &
water (one favours a family’s sons & the other that of the wife).
And it is one of few countries in the world where citizens are revitalizing
their tribal structures with the motto “Yemen for the tribes &
the tribes for Yemen.”
So much for this aspect
of the Arab Spring.
FIVE REASONS TO
AVOID CHINA’S UNRAVELLING ECONOMY
(G&M, Avner Mandelman)
- Banking problems -
This is nothing new; the only thing that’s new is that potentially
bad loans likely skyrocketed during its post-2008 aggressive growth
in bank lending;
- Currency pressure -
A higher yuan may actually help to alleviate inflationary pressures;
- Legal vacuum - That
isn’t new either; nor is it uncommon throughout the developing world;
- Hard line leaders -
Xi Jinping, the supposed President-in-waiting has a hardline reputation.
But even he may be reluctant to ‘kill the goose that lays the golden
eggs’, & spoil the party for the hundreds of millions of his compatriots
trying the grab the brass ring, with some Tiananmen Square replay. For
much has changed in the 22 years since then; and
- Lack of transparency -
nobody in his right mind has ever trusted its official statistics; but
those like the otherwise highly respected Austin, Texas-based Stratfor
that call it an unsustainable Ponzi scheme may be going too far (if
only because of its poor choice of words : all Ponzi schemes by definition
are “unsustainable).
Right now it is fashionable
for some people to decry China, for others the US, for
still others Europe & for some the lot of them. But in the end Beijing’s
policy makers may have the easiest time adapting; for their system is
still totalitarian enough to allow major policy changes to be made quickly
with a minimum of fuss, & they have the financial wherewithal to
hide a multitude of sins.
CHINA TOLD TO REDUCE
FOOD PRODUCTION OR FACE ’DIRE’ WATER LEVELS
(The Guardian, Jonathan
Watts)
. Zheng Chunmiao
is one of China’s leading ground water experts. In an interview he
said the country will have to focus more on demand-side restraints
for water because it is becoming more costly & difficult to tap
finite groundwater supplies, and that it will be cheaper to import grain.
He believes “the government must adopt a new policy to reduce water
consumption ... The main thing is to reduce demand. We have relied too
much on engineering projects but the government realizes this is not
a long-term solution.”
All this is based
on his study of the aquifers beneath the North China Plain, the country’s
main wheat-growing region, that led him to conclude their water level
is dropping by at least one metre a year, mainly due to the demands
from agriculture (that accounts for 60% of the total usage). He estimates
that over the past decade the annual water deficit in North China has
been 4BN cubic metres, met largely by drawing down underground sources
(that account for two-thirds of the nation’s total water supplies,
and that while some of the 10,000 year-old
aquivers are still all right, others are being depleted at an alarming
rate.
This runs counter
to Beijing’s drive for greater self-sufficiency in a number of critical
goods, incl. food. For it operates from a different song sheet.
Decades ago already Mao Tse-tung opined
“Southern Water is plentiful, and Northern water scarce ... borrowing
water would be good” (conveniently ignoring that borrowing implies
paying back). This prompted a massive engineering project, the South-North
Water Transfer Project, the latest stage of which is to bring water
from Southwestern China, home to the headwaters of, among others, the
Mekong & Brahmaputra rivers, to the North. But this will
reduce the supply of water for China’s Southern neighbours, incl.
Bangladesh, Vietnam &, India (Zheng Chunmiao is a full professor
at the University of Alabama & in recent years has also been the
Founding Director of Peking University’s Water Research Centre, and
at various times in the past was a Visiting Scientist with, among others,
the University of Sheffield, Stanford University, the
US geological Survey, Menlo Park).
PUBLIC KILLING
SHOCKS COUNTRY (AF-P)
- Pakistan on June 9th
arrested five members of its Rangers paramilitary after amateur film
footage on local TV, & then on YouTube, showed them threatening,
and then shooting an unarmed young man, & leaving him to bleed to
death in a park in Karachi’s most exclusive neighbourhood. But when
human rights activists & lawyers called this proof of how brutalized
their country had become after years of bomb attacks, kidnappings &
a Taliban insurgency in the Northwest Frontier region, & MPs referred
to the paramilitaries as “terrorists in uniform”, Prime Minister
Raza Gilani told them that under the Constitution abusive language can’t
be used against the judiciary & the armed forces.
Often, most recently
in Tunisia, such martyrdom turns a smouldering, sub-surface fire of
public discontent into a raging conflagration. But many Pakistanis are
so inured to violence, & others so pro-actively support it, that
this likely will blow over quickly,
& disappear without a trace.
SINGAPORE TO OVERTAKE
VEGAS (AF-P)
- Singapore is about to overtake
Vegas as the world’s second-largest gambling hub (after Macao). After
the opening of two new casinos last year, its gaming revenues are expected
to rise 25% YoY to US$6.6BN, vs. Vegas’ US$ 6.4BN (down from US$11BN
in 2007).
The Asian economies
are doing much better than that of the US, & their moneyed middle
classes are now in the aggregate far bigger than the entire North American
population.
MUSLIM COUPLE TO
CHALLENGE NIQAB BAN (AF-P)
- A French couple living in
England has lodged a challenge of France’s ban on full-face coverings
with the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights, on the grounds
it is “unnecessary, disproportionate & unlawful” & restricts
their right to free movement across the EU, with the wife seeking US$16,400
in damages. Their lawyer says that “As a result of the ban, they have
had to leave the country of their nationality, as the ban restricts
their freedom of choice, and that of their daughters.”
Another potential
challenge to the concept of a United Europe. The Court has often sought
to impose its will on national parliaments. And while its decisions
have so far largely prevailed, or at least have not been altogether
ignored, if it did so in this case, it may in the current environment
go over like a lead balloon, with major long-term consequences (the
supposed freedom of movement across national borders under the Schengen
Agreement is already being widely circumvented, most actively by France.
POLICE IN AUSTRALIA
CAN ORDER REMOVAL OF MUSLIM VEILS
(DT, Jonathan Pearlman)
- The government of the state
of New South Wales has rushed through legislation allowing police to
force the removal of head coverings to identify suspected criminals
& providing for persons who refuse to remove a head covering for
police to face up to a year in jail, with the state’s premier, Barry
O’Farrell, saying “I don’t care whether a person is wearing a
motor cycle helmet, a niqab, a face veil or anything else, the police
should be allowed to require ... people to make their identification
clear.” This followed the recent furor after a Sydney woman was charged
with falsely accusing the police of assault, claiming police had tried
to rip off her veil after her car was pulled over, but was cleared by
a judge who ruled she could not be positively identified because of
her head covering.
Australian politicians
have long been unequivocally vocal
that the law applies equally to all, regardless of race, ethnicity or
religion, and that newcomers must conform with local laws & traditions
regardless of those of their country of origin & that those who
don’t want to, or feel they cannot, had better decamp to some place
else where the rules are more to their liking (like Canada?).
DATA SHOW HUGE
SUMS LEFT ANGOLA (Reuters, Ed Stoddard)
- The Washington-based anti-corruption
group Global Financial Integrity (GFI) claims that in 2009, the last
year for which data are available, almost US$6BN was spirited out of
Angola, i.e. nearly one-sixth of its annual budget, 75% of it
by “trade mispricing”. i.e. importers pretending to pay foreigners
more for imports than they owed with the overpayment ending up in their
bank accounts overseas. The secretive ruling MPLA party around President
Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who has been in power for the last 32 years
has long been accused of plundering the nation’s oil wealth. Transparency
International rates Angola 168th out of 178 countries and,
while most of the people living in its capital are destitute, consulting
firms rate it one of the world’s most popular destinations for foreigners.
- Angola is Africa’s second-largest
producer of crude oil & a strategic supplier to the US. On the other
hand, GFI estimated that in 2009 US$27.5BN left Nigeria, Africa’s
largest oil producer with a population 8x that of Angola’s 18½MM
(but only 2½x its US$75BN GDP).
Trade mispricing,
like all corruption, takes two to tango, a corruptee, always a local,
& a corruptor, typically a foreigner, in this case the foreign
oil buyer, or the convenient middleman acting on his behalf, who facilitates
the practice (& while Western countries have little, if any, hold
on the former, they do have the potential ability , but seldom make
much of an effort, to deal with the latter, possibly due to the realization
that their countries’ firms must compete with others from the emerging
economies for whom bribery & corruption is all but a way of life.
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