Barack Obama came to Ottawa, packed a lot into seven hours on the
ground in Canada and was home at the White House in time for dinner.
But his visit, quick as it was, was a point of departure, a turning of
a new page in the relationship between Canada and the United States.
The priorities: recession and recovery, the environment and energy,
Afghanistan and global security. From Washington, former diplomat
David Jones shares a US perspective on the visit and a look ahead to
the Obama years between our two countries.
Canada’s and Ottawa’s mini-frenzy on February 19 provided the
equivalent of a mid-winter vacation, a Winterlude, for Canadian
attention. You now have seen “the elephant” — and even better, the
elephant came to you for a cameo appearance and viewing, said that it
loved you and wants to come back — when it’s warm.
But this is just the beginning of the beginning. Without emphasizing
gloom and doom, there are Chinese curse years of the “may you live in
interesting times” vintage ahead. Canada may have four years relating
to President Obama; it may have eight years relating to him, but
whoever leads Canada needs to keep perspective in the relationship. It
is not prophecy but history that leads to the conclusion that Obama
will never be more popular than he is now, and the problems he and the
US government face have us making peace rather than fostering enmity.
Here are some summary points coming out of the President’s one-day
visit to Ottawa.
Not looking for a fight. One can conclude from the Prime
Minister-President exchange and press conference, that there are few
divisions between them regarding the problems at hand. Those who were
eager for stiff “body language” or sound bites suggesting dissonance
or disdain were disappointed. There are big, big economic problems
around the globe, and tertiary concerns (see Omar Khadr) are just not
going to get attention.
The Stupid Economy. We are not in another Great Depression, but
doubtless we are enduring the worst economic circumstances of our
lives. And while in technical terms (as of March 2009), the statistics
regarding unemployment or inflation are not as bad as in some earlier
recessions, the fear is that worse, much worse, is still to come. We
may be fortunate and have a relatively rapid recovery toward the end
of 2009, but in reality any economist who says he knows what is going
to happen is either duplicitous or delusional.
Thus both the United States and Canada are engaged in massive fiscal
stimulus packages (“mutually beneficial stimulus measures”) and
support for ailing (read “automobile”) industries. But Canadians
recognize that they cannot recover unless the United States (and the
rest of the world) does. Consequently, Canadians can only hope that US
efforts are successful in promoting banking/lending revival; it is
faint comfort that their own banks, having rejected the go-go fiscal
innovations of the past decade, have largely avoided the “went-gone”
consequences of such activity.
No beggar-thy-neighbour trade war. We are headed for neither “Buy
America” restrictions on Canadian exports into the United States nor a
reopened North American Free Trade Agreement. The President reinforced
his commitment to adhere to treaty agreements, i.e., NAFTA, and his
interest in decanting this can of worms is minimal. The Prime Minister
admitted that NAFTA permits limited ways one can have domestic
preferences and purchasing policies — but there was no expectation
that Canadian exports will be limited.
Indeed, the sotto voce exchange during the primary campaign between an
Obama adviser and a Canadian official was correct: Obama’s attacks on
NAFTA were campaign rhetoric designed for Rust Belt state electorates.
At most, one might anticipate a “review” akin to that undertaken by
the Chrétien government when entering power in 1993. Ostensibly
committed to reopening and rewriting the agreement during his
campaign, Jean Chrétien’s Liberals found harmless devices to manage
the “letter” of such a review without affecting previously agreed
substance. In a similar vein at their joint press conference, Obama
pointed out that if the NAFTA side letters on labour and environment
are meaningful, they could be incorporated into the main agreement.
But here also the expectation was that such action would be done the
way porcupines make love: very carefully. The Obama administration
knows that its essential trade challenges are with Asia rather than
within North America. NAFTA works; don’t break it.
Climate change and other environmental concerns. Despite gusts of
rhetoric, what will actually be done with energy/environment appears
to be highly limited. The commitment to a “US-Canada clean energy
dialogue” is really an agreement to begin to commence to start...
something. Inexpensive energy is an economic basic for prosperity.
With that truism as a given, the US coal “pot” is not going to be
damning the Canadian tar sands “kettle” as black. President Obama said
bluntly that in dealing with climate change, we must make “sure that
in the midst of a severe recession that it’s not having too much of an
adverse impact on economic growth and employment.” Reportedly the much
bruited-about “carbon capture” sequestration adds 30 percent to the
cost of energy produced, and doing it efficiently is in the
never-never out years. Washington’s desire to reduce reliance on
imported energy really means reducing reliance on energy from outside
North America. Yes, it would be nice if all energy could become pure
as the driven snow (at an affordable price), but the political impetus
regarding the environment as reflected in domestic polling has dropped
— and with it the pressure to do something expensive in a time of
economic recession.
Border security. Perhaps the smartest words Prime Minister Harper
spoke during his press conference with President Obama were that “the
view of this government is unequivocal: threats to the United States
are threats to Canada... Let there be no illusion about the fact that
we take these security concerns as seriously as our American friends.”
Yes, we can and should be concerned that a “thickening border” could
inhibit trade and social interaction. Yes, we can lament long lines of
tourists and commercial trucking at border crossing points. And, yes,
we can devote some of our stimulus package to infrastructure designed
to ease border transit. But security still trumps trade and that
reality should not be forgotten.
Nevertheless, Americans have long had the impression that Canadians
think us paranoid about security when we should merely be neurotic —
and consequently had to be dragged kicking/screaming into accepting
procedures for greater document security and border control. It is not
that Ottawa hasn’t spent for enhancing security, but media attention
invariably fastens on the poor souls denied entry through ludicrous
error, communities divided by new fences, Predator drone surveillance
of Manitoba or discomfited citizens enduring holiday delays. The
impression conveyed is of hard-hearted thugs in uniform harassing
poor-little-me Canadians rather than a sophisticated effort to keep
our societies secure from terrorism.
But zero-defects border security must be a primary consideration for
the Obama administration. The reason is obvious; perhaps the only
enduring domestic accomplishment of the G.W. Bush tenure is that there
were no further terrorist attacks on the United States following
September 11, 2001. Whether such a fortunate record was the
consequence of good luck, terrorist incompetence, draconian and
secretive domestic intelligence operations, vigorous military
operations in Afghanistan and else-where, or some combination of the
foregoing, it is a reality that certainly was not expected on
September 12, 2001. Should there be another attack on the United
States, the Obama presidency will bear the politicized onus — and
Ottawa should be hyper alert to avoid any possibility that such an
attack originated in Canada. Spending on security combined with verbal
reinforcement of Canadian concern will be cheap at the price.
Afghanistan. We have a modus vivendi. The US is in the process of a
comprehensive review of its policy toward Afghanistan — a review that
appears likely to add upward of 30,000 troops to US forces there. The
US is well aware of Canada’s 2011 term limit on its commitment to
Afghanistan — but that is a commitment longer than those of most of
the rest of the coalition forces currently in country. So there was no
need now to ask for any further extension — and Obama didn’t. If
necessary, there will be quite enough time to request Ottawa to
reconsider a commitment, at least in the development/training
categories.
A substantial portion of the US troop reinforcements are likely to be
based in conjunction with Canadian forces near Kandahar. This
collocation will reinforce professional collegiality and give both
countries’ military forces renewed experience operating together in
combat — a circumstance not really seen since the Korean War.
Moreover, in facing NATO allies at the April summit, Canada and the US
(as well as the UK and Netherlands) will be urging greater alliance
commitments of combat forces without “caveats” for action in
Afghanistan.
Do personalities matter? And finally there is the always intriguing
question of whether it really matters if presidents and prime
ministers “get along.” (It’s coupled with the ancillary question of
whether the nature of an ambassador is marginal or significant.)
To be sure, it is better that the president-prime minister
relationship be marked at least by professional respect, even mutual
congeniality, rather than thinly veiled contempt.
And we have had both the congeniality and the contempt between our
heads of government — certainly the latter, as anyone with historical
knowledge of Diefenbaker-Kennedy, Johnson-Pearson and
Nixon-Trudeau¬Reagan will recall. Nor has it really been persistently
helpful to have had obviously congenial relations, particularly not
for Tory PMs, as Canadian distaste for Mulroney actually tended to
heighten domestic anti-Americanism, given his close relations with
Reagan and the first George Bush (Bush 41). The fact that these warm
relations generated positive bilateral benefits for Canada — e.g., the
acid rain treaty and NAFTA — appeared irrelevant.
On the other hand, it is difficult to say that the largely positive
Chrétien-Clinton relationship (which was almost a semi-secret closet
friendship) particularly benefitted either country. The eight-year
(1993- 2001) Clinton presidency was one largely of calm seas in both
economics (NAFTA) and foreign affairs, when views were largely
coincidental (Haiti, former Yugoslavia). On the other hand, Liberal
leaders were never comfortable with George W. Bush (Chrétien declined
to come to Washington to join other foreign leaders for Bush’s
post-9/11 address to Congress), and Liberal contempt was not even
thinly veiled following the coalition’s regime change in Iraq. Still
it is hard to detail specifics to any charges that the substance
rather than the atmospherics of the relationship deteriorated. The
Harper- Bush relationship was very low-key. Being publicly nicknamed
“Steve” by “Dubya” was not career-enhancing for Prime Minister Harper,
but it was also clear that the Bush administration carefully avoided
potentially toxic issues (missile defence) that might have damaged the
Prime Minister. The major bilateral benefit was the elimination of
previous slanging Liberal rhetoric.
Thus the Harper-Obama relationship, while one in which the cornerstone
has just been placed, has at least started collegially. Obama’s casual
back pat for Harper was unstudied; Obama is hardly a Canada scholar
(recall that he thought Canadian senators were elected), but he has
Canadian ties, with a half-sister and brother-in-law living near
Toronto, and he made a point that he had Canadians on his staff (would
a Canadian PM be so daring?). For the near term at least (and perhaps
for two terms), Obama will be globally charming; Canada under Tory or
Liberal leadership (and Michael Ignatieff appears comparably
compatible with Obama) can be part of America’s solutions rather than
part of its problems — if it so desires.
Regarding our respective ambassadors, much as an ancien diplomat would
like to extol their vital nature, such would be an exaggeration.
Likewise, a career professional diplomat would prefer to see career
professionals heading embassies, but again (albeit with regret) one
must admit that such professional credentials are not necessary for
success. What is most useful is that our ambassadors be politically
well connected within their home capitals and avoid gratuitous insult.
That is, they can pick up the phone and speak directly with the most
senior cabinet secretaries/ministers and deliver their concerns and
conclusions without bureaucratic filtering. In that regard, Canadian
ambassador Raymond Chrétien, Prime Minister Chrétien’s nephew, was
perfect: While he was a career diplomat, US officials could assume,
correctly, that he could speak as needed with “Uncle Jean,” and when
he delivered a message to US officials, it was coming with whatever
senior-level imprimatur was required. In contrast, Frank McKenna, a
political appointee, was out of the PM Paul Martin loop, and was
widely ignored in both capitals. US ambassadors in Ottawa such as Jim
Blanchard, Paul Cellucci and David Wilkins had been senior political
actors in the United States before their appointments and remained
tightly connected with the administration. Canadians could be
confident that they could deliver Ottawa’s concerns to the appropriate
ear in Washington and when they spoke, they would not be gainsaid by
the administration.
We anticipate the appointment of a US ambassador to Ottawa, Ambassador
Wilkins having departed with the Bush presidency. However, there is no
requirement for the incumbent Canadian ambassador in Washington,
Michael Wilson, to be replaced. Wilson, ambassador for three years as
of March 13, is low-key, competent and very well versed in economic
issues as well as being a Tory insider; his sole ostensible liability
is his political-professional association with the Bush Republicans,
but it may not be considered toxic.
Fifteen years ago, with the end of the Cold War and the coincidence of
a Democrat president and a Liberal prime minister, analysts could
sanguinely conclude that the bilateral relationship had never been
better. Subsequently, the “best friends, like it or not” sobriquet
describing the relationship was distinctly in the “not” portion of the
cycle. We not only agreed to disagree, we frequently did so
disagreeably.
At this juncture, with a new president driven by domestic economic
concerns, there is good potential for what might be regarded as “new
normal” relations. To be sure, there will be the “events” that foil
all predictions (a resurgence of mad cow disease or the SARS epidemic
or a virulent avian flu), causing economic and border problems, but,
albeit with fingers crossed, we can anticipate a return to a bilateral
relationship marked by managers rather than ideologues.
David T. Jones, a former Minister-Counsellor at the U.S. embassy in
Ottawa during the Clinton years, follows Canada-US relations closely
from Washington.